correlation of food prices and uprisings - Tree of Souls - An Avatar Community Forum
Tree of Souls - An Avatar Community Forum
Go Back   Tree of Souls - An Avatar Community Forum » General Forums » General Discussion

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-20-2011, 12:52 AM
auroraglacialis's Avatar
Tsulfätu
auroraglacialis can now be called "doctor"
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Central Europe
Posts: 1,622
Default correlation of food prices and uprisings

This is an interesting correlation. And the predictions say that long term trends indicate that in 2013 the average price span will go above the threshhold...


I guess they will combat that with food stamps and subsidies for a while longer, but not all countries can do that. Or want to do that.


The Cause Of Riots And The Price of Food

__________________
Know your idols: Who said "Hitler killed five million Jews. It is the greatest crime of our time. But the Jews should have offered themselves to the butcher's knife. They should have thrown themselves into the sea from cliffs.". (Solution: "Mahatma" Ghandi)

Stop terraforming Earth (wordpress)

"Humans are storytellers. These stories then can become our reality. Only when we loose ourselves in the stories they have the power to control us. Our culture got lost in the wrong story, a story of death and defeat, of opression and control, of separation and competition. We need a new story!"
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-20-2011, 04:13 AM
Sempu's Avatar
Tsamsiyu
Sempu has no status.
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Pacific NorthWest
Posts: 579
Default

I wonder whether Britain should be counted? What do the numbers in parentheses mean?

Global food price rises stem from the quantitative easing in the USA devaluing the dollar, the world's reserve currency. Food cost as a proportion of the overall household budget is much higher in most undeveloped countries than it is in most developed countries (typically something like 40% vs 10%), so the price increases hurt them more. I bet we'e in for QE3 soon, too.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-20-2011, 04:47 AM
Human No More's Avatar
Toruk Makto, Admin
Human No More has no status.
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: In a datacentre
Posts: 11,751
Default

It wasn't an uprising, it was a group of chavs looting shops for TVs and overpriced branded clothes. If you claim that should be counted, then France has several 'uprisings' per year.

Arab spring protesters back UK rioters in their fight for new trainers

If you look at the pattern of the graph, there's another sharp decline approaching. One thing is certain: The civil wars are not over food, but over oppression.
__________________
...
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-20-2011, 06:23 AM
Ashen Key's Avatar
Ikran Makto
Ashen Key is writing
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 796
Send a message via AIM to Ashen Key
Default

Interesting that the graph only goes from 2004 - there were a series of riots in Britain early 1800s. IIRC it wasn't just hiked food prices (been a couple years since the course) but they seemed to trigger it. So, not surprising.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-20-2011, 07:20 AM
auroraglacialis's Avatar
Tsulfätu
auroraglacialis can now be called "doctor"
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Central Europe
Posts: 1,622
Default

Here is a link to the original paper: [1108.2455] The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East

The numbers are death counts.

And an interesting excerpt on the causes of the food price changes:
Quote:
In a separate paper we consider the causes of the increases in food prices [66]. While
there have been several suggested origins of the food price increases, we nd the dominant
ones to be investor speculation and ethanol production. Our analysis shows that the two
parts of the dynamics of prices can be directly attributed to the two di erent causes: the
price peaks are due to speculators causing price bubbles, and the background increase shown
in Fig. 2 is due to corn to ethanol conversion. This intuitive result is made quantitative by
the analysis in that paper.
Both factors in food prices can be linked directly to recent US governmental actions.
Speculator activity has been enhanced by deregulation of the commodities markets that
exempted dealers from trading limits [67{69], and subsidies and other policies have been
central to the growth of ethanol conversion [70, 71].
I would add to that the increasing degradation of soils and climate reduced reductions in food production (which then are possibly "blown up" by speculation).

And yes, in poorer countries, the amount of income that goes to food is a lot higher. Sometimes it is basically all of it, when people live in makeshift homes. But one would be surprised at what the situation in Europe is in parts. For me personally, food makes about 20% of my monthly expenses (in part because I try to get organic food) with rent making 60%. For some others, especially those that are less well off, the percentage may actually easily exceed 30%, particularly if they are living in state-financed housing projects or live on jobless aid. This describes probably well the situation in the areas of England that were uprising. In the case of food making 30% of your income ore more and you already turn each dime twice - if food proces then rise a bit, you feel it directly.
I dont know all details of this, but I think the reason why people did looting and such in London were poverty and by that could also be incited by food prices. I can imagine a lot of the stolen stuff was stolen to be sold (watch out for cheap TVs and such on ebay ) in order to get at least temporarily a bit more above the bare minimum subsistence line.
Now what governments in Europe seem to do a lot is food subsidies. I know this from Germany and from Sweden. In that case, vital parts of the food supply are subsidized or at least price-controlled. That way, people will always have affordable bread, milk, eggs and a couple of other things. I think this is at the same time a good thing (poor people can still afford food), and a thing that is used to control unrest. It kind of hides the reality of the food situation from us if it goes bad for some time. We either dont see it because food is only a small percentage of what we spend - or we dont see it so much because of these regulations. In any case, this could be part of the reason why there are little "uprisings" in Germany and Sweden.
__________________
Know your idols: Who said "Hitler killed five million Jews. It is the greatest crime of our time. But the Jews should have offered themselves to the butcher's knife. They should have thrown themselves into the sea from cliffs.". (Solution: "Mahatma" Ghandi)

Stop terraforming Earth (wordpress)

"Humans are storytellers. These stories then can become our reality. Only when we loose ourselves in the stories they have the power to control us. Our culture got lost in the wrong story, a story of death and defeat, of opression and control, of separation and competition. We need a new story!"
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Visit our partner sites:

      pandoraworld.ru



All times are GMT +1. The time now is 03:18 AM.

Based on the Planet Earth theme by Themes by Design


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
All images and clips of Avatar are the exclusive property of 20th Century Fox.