US Gov. to shut down
 

So the wall street journal said that by April 8th, the government will be so far in debt that it will be forced to shut down. I'm hearing this from everybody. What do you all think?

It's not April 1st yet.

In my mind, I'm thinking, "Oh my God. Oh my God. This is not good. This is very, very bad."

There is no way haha, this would have been all over every major news company in the world. It won't happen

Forced to shut down.... by... whom?

lol

Whenever we discuss the economic recession in my government class, I can't help but smile and think "I'm just glad I don't walk outside, and the big boys is firing AK rounds off."

I mean, it is damn good here. I aint got nothing to complain about.

This has been happening on and off for years. On April 8 expect them to pass a continuing resolution to keep going for a bit longer. Even if they shut down, it'll be only nonessential services and only for a few days. But the gist of the story is correct.

"He told a room full of reporters that he forced the shutdown because Clinton had rudely made him and Bob Dole sit at the back of Air Force One... Newt had been careless to say such a thing, and now the whole moral tone of the shutdown had been lost. What had been a noble battle for fiscal sanity began to look like the tirade of a spoiled child. The revolution, I can tell you, was never the same."

From the 1995 shut down. Lawl.

So where does that leave our troops overseas?


Besides unsupervised with enough weapons to level a good sized nation?

@Devourment- I'm well aware of this. This has been a huge story in all of my classes for the whole week.

@Isard- That was my first concern, I kid you not.

I was just joking. They can get themselves home if the government does collapse. Chain of command, best invention humanity has ever devised. Carriers are commanded by the most honorable and respected men in the US Navy.

This isn't going to happen. You do realize that right?

I again ask, forced to shut down by whom?

The sane ones?

Its not that the Gov will shut down, but The Gov may collapse.... When? Probably not tomorrow, but maybe between 1-5 years?
Educate yourself people
Google: hyperinflation & fiat currency (+ the national debt is also a big player)
And of course you would never hear any thing of this sort on the news or mainstream news media, because they are liars to us the public & are deceiving & want to make us think everything is ok, & safe.

Spending will have to be cut eventually. Unfortunately, few in Congress even have the guts to try and make any worthwhile cut to entitlement spending. If they do, they will face the ire of some angry demographic or lobbyist group.

I had the exact opposite impression. They blow things out of proportion and want you to keep believing that its always the end of the world so you keep watching their news. Unfortunately among the general public, they are succeeding.

I found out who will make them shut down.

http://fc03.deviantart.net/fs71/f/20...nowskiSigs.jpg

How? Really, I don't see how. Let's say the U.S. goes trillions into debt. That doesn't matter. Non of our actual goods disappear, we still have them. Nobody would be dumb enough to invade the U.S. The U.S. has so much nationalism that pretty much every man would take up arms to defend their homeland. (Not saying nationalism is a good thing always, just what would happen)

I really don't get how we could shut down? Debt is a number, if other countries stop trading with us, we would either produce our own stuff, or say "Too bad, trade with us"

I sincerely hope no country is dumb enough to invade the U.S., because I really don't want atomic bombs to fly everywhere.

It's not April 1st yet, people. You're a day early.

The most likely outcome of the US government's debasing of the US dollar through monetizing the debt is hyperinflation. It would have almost certainly already happened if the USD wasn't the world's reserve currency. Whenever a country tries to change that (say, accept Euros for oil) they get sat on in the worst way by the US.

It doesn't make the news much because too many people don't understand the numbers involved and find the topic boring. That will change when the economic collapse reaches critical mass. Hard to say when that will happen, but they can't keep up this shell game forever.

The world is losing faith in the U.S. dollar. We have some goods & food, but we are like the world's #1 consumer of goods (buyers). Alot of retail items come from China & they are gonna get fed up with our U.S. fiat currency that is declining in value whille the Gov just prints more of it like they think they can do anything they want & no-one can/will stop them.

The only reason we produce so much food is because of oil, & the world will reach (if it hasnt already) "peak oil". When the price of oil begins to accelerate, modern-day farmers may produce less &/or charge more for food & that will trickle down to the supply & transportation cost of this food which its final destination is us the consumer.

I just think just like the fall of Rome, we will see the fall of he U.S.'s or even global "standard (style) of living" + fall of Gov.

Huh? No, we produce so much food because people will buy it. People buy stuff because either A) they feel they have to, or B) they want to. Food falls in Category A. People aren't going to stop buying food when the prices go up (e.g., because of oil and other production costs going up), they're going to stop buying Category B items. And is that really such a bad thing?

Evolutionary forces are at work on our unsustainable way of life in this country. That's not necessarily something to be upset about!

The government does not print money to finance its debts. It issues bonds to private investors or foreign governments. These bonds carry interest on them. The less likely it seems that the bond will be paid back (risk), the more interest that is paid on the bond.

Take a look at these graphs:

2 Year Treasury Yields
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...bonds-23-1.png

5 Year Treasury Yields:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...bonds-23-2.png

US – White
Germany – Red
UK – Blue
Portugal – Orange
Italy – Green
Greece – Yellow
Spain - Purple

If you followed the crisis in Greece recently, you can see why their economy went downhill. As far as the U.S. goes, there isn't an imminent collapse coming. We're considered to be one of the safest investments out there. If this number does shoot up, however, then be afraid!! be very afraid!

It should also be noted that printing more money does not necessarily decline the value of a currency. In fact it can even raise the value of currency in some instances. The value of our currency is simply based upon the ratio of how much demand there is for a currency over how much supply there is. In short, if more people want our currency, then its value tends to go up.

Let them make ethanol :P.

Well the US as a superpower/empire collapse? Absolutely, because that's what superpower DO and honestly, you can already see the cracks. Although I'm guessing it'll be more like the decline of the British Empire than Rome - no barbarian hordes, just decreasing in influence and troops posted overseas.

Will this has happen in the next MONTH? So exceedingly unlikely. It'll take more years.

That would be interesting if it did happen.

I wouldn't say that its so much a decline. More of it has to do with the rise of everyone else. There will be problems ahead but the U.S. economy will continue to grow; however, its share as a % of the world economy will plumet.

I actually would say that the US is on the way down. At least, it's giving that impression from the outside. I just don't think it's going to happen any time soon.

The recession is resulted in some lost years of growth. Those will probrably never be recovered. Big business is actually booming again and there is plenty of growth in job market; however, most of that is for highly specialized professions. This is reflected in increasing prosperity among the higher income brackets these days. Demand for unskilled labor remains lower than ever. Many people are unemployed because they don't have the necessary qualifications for the new job market. This often gets reflected in the general mood of the media.

http://static2.businessinsider.com/i...n-feb-2011.jpg

The days of just landing a well paying job with early retirement right out of high school without higher education is over and many people are really feeling the hurt because of that. Those jobs aren't coming back.

The military is stretched to breaking point by the wars in the middle east, and thanks to Truman, the US has been stuck with a wartime economy. That isn't sustainable - if nothing else, it's going to be harder and harder to justify more wars and invasions, of which the US has had a LOT. Not to mention that the cultural conditions that enabled the US to swagger about the world stage are slowly changing.

Demand for unskilled labor remains lower than ever. <-- yeah. That's not a good thing, particularly not with the cost of schooling. That trend continues, you are going to have more and more people unable to get the qualifications they need. Meaning more unemployment, which'll lead to more instability. Also, more homeless as they can't afford housing, and so on and so forth. To go back to Rome, look at the unemployment rates for citizens thanks to the slave-trade. That, too, contributed to its fall.

Like I said, I don't think the US is falling anytime soon. But it's getting there.

I disagree. Most of this declining influence will come from the rise of other regional superpowers. The military will remain very large as far as I can predict. The U.S. will continue to keep pumping huge amounts of money into defense spending (though it may dip a little). Unfortunately under George W. Bush, we went into two wars without raising taxes (lowering them a lot in fact) or by cutting spending in other areas to pay for them. The size of the military pales in comparison with what it once was during the cold war and the U.S. did not have problems funding it then.

While the U.S. will continue to have a major military presence globally, its not going to be the only major player on the block anymore. In South America, Brazil is rising in influence, in other parts of the world, we will be competing with China, etc.
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As for unemployment, its going to cause some short term problems (see the state of our polarized politics right now) but its far from anything critical thats going to cause mass rioting. The labor market will eventually adjust itself over the long term.


Now don't get me wrong. We are going to take a hit but its not going to be THAT big or pronounced. I'd also be very supportive of a more multipolar world but at the rate things are going, I don't think thats going to happen. We will see several big players swaggering around the world stage again. In quite a few cases, the way I see that things will play out doesn't necessarily reflect what I would like to see occur.

Fair enough! We'll have to agree to disagree, but...well, it'll be interesting.

Empires collapse; that's what they do. The US is an empire (proof left as an exercise to the reader :-) ). When it is going to happen and what constitutes "collapse" are harder questions to answer.

If we look at the British Empire it did not so much collapse as fizzle out as its colonies became independent and its role as a superpower was supplanted by the USA. That process started in WWI (first time that Britain needed help winning a war) and was over with the Suez crisis (first time British foreign policy was coerced by US influence).

Something similar is likely to happen with the USA as the Chinese economy exceeds it between 2020 and 2030. With all those US treasuries they will be in a position to call a lot of shots. I'm sure it's why the US doesn't already take a significant stand on the human rights issue.

Often a decline is sudden, in a punctuated equilibrium sort of way, like the collapse of the USSR. Unlikely in the case of the USA but I keep wondering whether it will come to the point where it looks at all the nuclear weapons it has and figures they must be useful for something.

Heh. Chances are, we're both wrong. Considering that there's an infinite number of random things that can happen in the future, who knows? We may even find 10 foot tall blue people on another planet someday :D.

If the global market gets flooded with U.S. Federal Reserve Notes (US currency) it does lose its vaule which jives with hyperinflation. Have you bought food recently &/or bought fuel? its goin up & up & up. if you bought food & the price remained the same from say for example last fall (2010) then you received less goods (ie: oz, quarts, etc) per item. This is another way that the companies deceive you into thinking nothin is goin on.

Our standard of living whether in the U.S. or any other modern society is only because of oil, & like I said we're reaching peak oil & the supply will deminish while the price gets higher. Inversly is what will happen when the supply of U.S. fed notes goes high, its purchasing power decreases.

I was also under the impression that ethanol fuel is an "energy negative" meaning it takes more energy into producing it than the engery it yields.

BTW 1 gallon of gas for $4.25usd will get a car about 20 miles. So thats about the same as 6-8 weeks of human labor. Oil is cheap energy, but it cant/wont last for long. Would you push your car down the road for 6 weeks to go 20 miles for $4.25usd? ;-)

Respect!

Yeah I think it's a little too complicated for anyone to make any assertive claims.

We'll see what happens. I don't foresee an immediate future where I will not be comfortable in the US though. It's probably inevitable that it'll cease to be the power that it is today, but that's just seems like historical common sense.

I was joking about the ethanol part (not knowledgeable about it to begin with). The prospects of oil, as you point out, are indeed very worrying. Unfortunately I don't see whats going to take its place. Renewables are not in a position to supply the worlds energy needs anytime soon. Natural gas might be the biggest player in a world after cheap oil but even that will run out eventually. In fact, I think we've already passed peak oil. I would hope that Helium 3 turns out to be the wonder energy source that many claim it is.

BTW I'm not trying to be pessamistic or end of the world gloomy-doomy. I'm just bringin up some facts & thoughts to consider. Get everyone to educate themself vs letting the Gov or news media tell you what is right/wrong/not happening/whats in style/economy is good. The Gov & news media do LIE & that is FACT.

Read a book (not a novel), watch a documentary, read more website forums, turn off the news (especially FOX news if you even think you have a mind of your own), educate yourself, stock up & store food + water, plant a small garden of fruits & veggies, invest in solar energy, hedge yourself against inflation. All of those last notes are not bad or harmful in any way.

Solar energy would be perfect for residential energy & small commercial, only downfall at this time is initial cost.
Google: KERS
KERS is a way to recover moving energy & store it.
Hydrogen to my understanding is also a potential candidate, but has a long way to go to get better performance + economical.

Why not just say turn off all CNN, MSNBC, C-SPAN, etc. They're all the same.:hmm: They're loyal only to political parties, not the people, just like the parties themselves.-.- Instead of bashing one, bash all of them b/c they're the same. Just a suggestion.