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  #46  
Old 02-28-2011, 11:48 PM
‘Eylan
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Ooo! That sounds exciting! What do you think he'd do in the sequel and trequel?
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  #47  
Old 03-01-2011, 01:37 AM
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Anything at this point is pure speculation but the way I see it, Selfridge has a lot of inside knowledge about the "state of things" on Pandora. He would be a useful asset to any returning force that wanted to establish another foothold on the moon since he is the person most experienced in running such an operation at the moment. Although some of his superiors would frown at the idea of sending someone who failed to keep the mining operation going, any the opposition among the shareholders would be mostly muted by the fact that Quaritch mutinied against Selfridge. The management would probably see this as being mostly out of Selfridge's control. In fact I could see most of the anger directed at Quaritch then at Selfridge. To his credit in the eyes of the shareholders, Selfridge did try to stop Quaritch from taking over and mounting a reckless assault.

Unless the the sequel is set a few days after the first movie, I think the best guess would be that the humans would return about 1/3 of the way into the first sequel. If not, then the whole return of the humans would be its own seperate arc in the third movie. Regardless, Selfridge would be providing a lot of oversight into plans for reestablishing the base. Now in a lot of speculation threads, and fanfics, many people seem to paint the return of the humans as some sort of massive invasion with tanks, jets, drones and ballistic missiles, but I think it will be totally different. No doubt the humans will be better armed (gatling guns on the choppers, APCs for mining personnel, etc) but the overall goal is still to harvest unobtanium with as little cost as possible. On Earth, there would still be a huge amount of political and media opposition to any open war; however, I could see the new management as having "more free reign" in matters. Its not hard to imagine a policy of "you can stay where you are but if you even go so far as to appear threatening, we will take you out". Intimidation will play a bigger role but it can backfire.

And not doubt it will come to blows again and Selfridge's knowledge about the Tree of Souls, about Jake's leadership, and everything else he learned from the inside given from Jake's reports may be very useful in inflicting great blows on the Navi. But perhaps after another eye opening event like the destruction of hometree (who knows, maybe the Tree of souls will be destroyed), he might come to grips with his conscience again and come to a crossroads in his life where he can put an end whats happening or he can finish the job completely.

I say that Selfridge might switch sides because we see the fight between his orders and his conscience in his head several times. He seemed very regretful in destroying hometree but he also seemed to think that the die was cast and that there was no going back. The job that was started had to be finished.

There are a million ways the sequel could play out. Any surprising twist or deus ex machina could happen. But these are just my 2 cents.

Last edited by Banefull; 03-01-2011 at 02:01 AM.
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  #48  
Old 03-01-2011, 01:58 AM
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You know, you could say that Jake and Selfridge are kind of similar, and only differentiate when orders are questioned. They both felt the same comcerning the Na'vi when they first came to Pandora. Over time, Selfridge just took the easy way out while Jake took the harder road. Selfridge was the image of Jake, had Jake been too scared to fight back or care about the predicament the Na'vi were in. It was just a question of bravery, and Selfridge wasn't up to the challenge.

You could almost compare the two to Gandalf and Saruman. One took the hard path; the path of good, while the other took the easy path; the path of evil. Not to say Selfridge was evil, but he was definately on the side of power, rather than the side of righteous act.

Now since Selfridge has had much time to think over what he's done, and how his choices were horribly wrong in most respects, he's going to want to make amends, I think. He's going to want to try and find redemption. What better way than to turn against the corporation he once stood for?
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  #49  
Old 03-01-2011, 02:08 AM
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I agree with your overall assessment of Jake and Selfridge.

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Now since Selfridge has had much time to think over what he's done, and how his choices were horribly wrong in most respects, he's going to want to make amends, I think. He's going to want to try and find redemption. What better way than to turn against the corporation he once stood for?
Perhaps but I think it'll be in the form of "we can get the unobtanium without pissing often the natives this time." I think we will see him frustrated with upper management this next time around. The higher-ups may order him to carry out a specific action based upon their own assessment but Selfirdge, having a better understanding of things this time around, sees a way to still get the same job done without intimidating/killing the natives but the higher management will still insist on their plans.

Most of it would be small things. Take this as an example:

Top Brass: Get the dozers to this site. Bring it through here (points at holomap). Take the shortest route.
Selfridge: A sacred site lies close by. Look, we need to go around all the way around. They will be on our doorstep again if we go straight through.
Top Brass: How long would it take?
Selfridge: Six maybe eight months.
Top Brass: ****it Selfridge, thats too long. The shareholders expect unobtanium on the next ISV flight out. We'll just double the strength of the escort.
Selfridge: but...
Top Brass: You have 3 months.
Selfridge: Yes sir (annoyed)


Selfridge will get frustrated and this frustration will continue to build up and I think it will end in a climax in some huge event after which he can make a decision that determines whether the humans have a permanent foothold or whether the whole operation is torn apart for the sake of "doing whats right".

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  #50  
Old 03-01-2011, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Banefull View Post
Now in a lot of speculation threads, and fanfics, many people seem to paint the return of the humans as some sort of massive invasion with tanks, jets, drones and ballistic missiles, but I think it will be totally different. No doubt the humans will be better armed (gatling guns on the choppers, APCs for mining personnel, etc) but the overall goal is still to harvest unobtanium with as little cost as possible. On Earth, there would still be a huge amount of political and media opposition to any open war; however, I could see the new management as having "more free reign" in matters. Its not hard to imagine a policy of "you can stay where you are but if you even go so far as to appear threatening, we will take you out". Intimidation will play a bigger role but it can backfire.
I'm not even going to take the time to retype what I have said many times before so I'm just copying my previous post with a small adition.

There are 12 ISVs - we can assume that due to needing 6 months acceleration from Earth each, 6 months is the VERY minimum spacing between them. Each one has a very small actual cargo capacity, likely around the same as a very large transport aircraft (e.g. An-225). Each one can carry maybe 100-200 passengers in total, but the ones already on the way to Pandora do NOT carry mostly marines, maybe 10-20 marines to replaces ones who were leaving. Even if an ISV WAS fully loaded with weapons, that would maybe be 4-5 scorpions OR 20 or so AMPsuits, and maybe 100-200 marines, but if it was caring any assembled vehicles then there would be no equipment for the marines.
Any vehicle, especially the scorpions, would need to be unloaded, assembled, and prepared before being any use - since a scorpion will not fit in a shuttle, it would need to be assembled on the ground (from multiple flights), even before being fuelled and armed. Of course, such vehicles use a LOT of fuel, which I haven't even mentioned so far, and would also take a lot of space, as well as effort.
Each ISV carries 2 shuttles. The shuttles are very vulnerable, especially now since the scientists will control Hell's Gate and all the anti-air defences. It is safe to assume there is nowhere else safe to land, between the Na'vi and the wildlife and plants of Pandora. Even if they did, than as I explained above, it would basically be a group of marines on foot, with minimal equipment.
It's not going to work.

As for 'gatling guns and APCs' the entire point is that the RDA is NOT military, the marines are intended for security there, NOT for a war. They are limited in what they can use and once what they ALREADY did is revealed, they will most likely lose their contract. (Plus, from a paactical standpoint, an 'APC' is useless in that envieonment and unguarded vehicles are EASY to destroy, so it makes no practical sense even if possible, while both the scorpions' and samsons' weapons already had multiple barrels, although to be honest, I fail to see what that has to do with anything.)

Yes, the humans will almost certainly appear in the sequel - but it is not a war film. the sequel will not be one. Neither is it soft scifi orbital attacks and spess mehrens as some people want to see.



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And not doubt it will come to blows again and Selfridge's knowledge about the Tree of Souls, about Jake's leadership, and everything else he learned from the inside given from Jake's reports may be very useful in inflicting great blows on the Navi.
I really doubt he would be doing so - he was forced intio letting Quaritch go on his psychopathic quest for revenge, and he did seem to have some regret after Hometree. Of course, that doesn't excuse him doing nothing - but I serously doubt he will be the next Quaritch.

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But perhaps after another eye opening event like the destruction of hometree (who knows, maybe the Tree of souls will be destroyed),
Unlikely as to be impossible - don't you remember what Grace said - it is the main point of the entire network. Avatar isn't a war film.

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I say that Selfridge might switch sides because we see the fight between his orders and his conscience in his head several times. He seemed very regretful in destroying hometree but he also seemed to think that the die was cast and that there was no going back. The job that was started had to be finished.
Possibly - but I think it is more likely that if it does happen, he isn't directly involved. It's more likely that the involvement will come from the humans on Earth, the same ones who were behind the survival guide.


Banefull - that context is impossible - there are no mining operations on Pandora any more. Any attempt to even land will just get destroyed. It is almost certain that the RDA will lose their contract when word of what happens reaches Earth (ahead of their ISV). Anyway, Selfridge is 13 years (at a MINIMUM) away from setting foot on Pandora even if it was possible. That could have worked if Selfridge was more of a character in a different version of the original film, but not really plausible in a sequel, I think.
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  #51  
Old 03-01-2011, 04:43 PM
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There are 12 ISVs - we can assume that due to needing 6 months acceleration from Earth each, 6 months is the VERY minimum spacing between them. Each one has a very small actual cargo capacity, likely around the same as a very large transport aircraft (e.g. An-225). Each one can carry maybe 100-200 passengers in total, but the ones already on the way to Pandora do NOT carry mostly marines, maybe 10-20 marines to replaces ones who were leaving. Even if an ISV WAS fully loaded with weapons, that would maybe be 4-5 scorpions OR 20 or so AMPsuits, and maybe 100-200 marines, but if it was caring any assembled vehicles then there would be no equipment for the marines.
Any vehicle, especially the scorpions, would need to be unloaded, assembled, and prepared before being any use - since a scorpion will not fit in a shuttle, it would need to be assembled on the ground (from multiple flights), even before being fuelled and armed. Of course, such vehicles use a LOT of fuel, which I haven't even mentioned so far, and would also take a lot of space, as well as effort.
I was under the impression that vehicles were manufactured on Pandora. The only parts that were shipped over were things could not be produced locally such as advanced electronics.

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Each ISV carries 2 shuttles. The shuttles are very vulnerable, especially now since the scientists will control Hell's Gate and all the anti-air defences. It is safe to assume there is nowhere else safe to land, between the Na'vi and the wildlife and plants of Pandora. Even if they did, than as I explained above, it would basically be a group of marines on foot, with minimal equipment.
It's not going to work.
If the humans ever did return, they would come directly to Hell's Gate. The few chosen scientists are still keeping the basic systems running but I am not sure that a group of 20 or so individuals could put up much in the way of resistance or man the weapon systems for that matter. The shuttle landing would mostly come as a surprise. You would not be prepared for it. If the all of the the scientists were 100% prepared with guns trained on the landing pad, then yes, it would be impossible but I don't think it'll happen that way.

Once on the ground, the steroelithography plant would be put back into operation and the defenses would be manned again. In the # of humans at Hell's Gate thread, we reached a general consensus that there were about 600 or 800 individuals at Hell's Gate. Among them about 150 or so were military personnel. If all 200 individuals on the ISV were devoted to defense, then we have a full complement of soldiers. Basically it would be a struggle to hold out until the next ISV arrived. If a major attack were to come within two weeks of the humans landing, then they would be overrun but mustering enough forces to storm the perimeter defenses would take time.

As far as wildlife goes, the humans held out under more dire circumstances in the past. In the beginning, when the humans first established a base, there hardly any heavy weapons, no perimeter fence with sentry guns, and no air cover.

The next ISVs cannot just turn around. They have to refuel at Hell's Gate so the humans would be forced to try desperate measures.

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Originally Posted by Human No More View Post
As for 'gatling guns and APCs' the entire point is that the RDA is NOT military, the marines are intended for security there, NOT for a war. They are limited in what they can use and once what they ALREADY did is revealed, they will most likely lose their contract. (Plus, from a paactical standpoint, an 'APC' is useless in that envieonment and unguarded vehicles are EASY to destroy, so it makes no practical sense even if possible, while both the scorpions' and samsons' weapons already had multiple barrels, although to be honest, I fail to see what that has to do with anything.)
My point is that they will probably see something of a slightly higher caliber. Nothing very advanced but we can expect to some some new equipment in action.

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I really doubt he would be doing so - he was forced intio letting Quaritch go on his psychopathic quest for revenge, and he did seem to have some regret after Hometree. Of course, that doesn't excuse him doing nothing - but I serously doubt he will be the next Quaritch.
I am no fan of Selfridge either but either he will return or James Cameron will have to introduce a new face.

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It is almost certain that the RDA will lose their contract when word of what happens reaches Earth (ahead of their ISV).
If everything was known yes, but only the RDA's side of the story will be told. Many of the details would be obscure to the average bureaucrat on Earth.

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Anyway, Selfridge is 13 years (at a MINIMUM) away from setting foot on Pandora even if it was possible. That could have worked if Selfridge was more of a character in a different version of the original film, but not really plausible in a sequel, I think.
Well it depends on a lot of things. I wonder if the ISV that left can make it all the way back to Earth. If a full return trip is impossible the only option would be to link up with the next ISV en route and travel to Pandora together. In that case, we would have a 400 individuals in the next wave which could be difficult to dislodge if they ever got a foothold In Hell's Gate again. After all, the base was only brought down form within. Storming the fence from the outside would have been extremely difficult.

We may see a standoff situation where the humans are just holed up sitting in Hell's Gate without venturing outside. Not much conflict there and perhaps in the third movie, the next few ISVs start to arrive and thats when hostilities break out again.

Last edited by Banefull; 03-01-2011 at 04:48 PM.
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  #52  
Old 03-02-2011, 04:14 PM
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I was under the impression that vehicles were manufactured on Pandora. The only parts that were shipped over were things could not be produced locally such as advanced electronics.
As I said before - good luck manufacturing vehicles, putting them together, testing, fuelling and arming them without a base
Vehicles were (mostly) locally made, but when Hell's Gate is no longer controlled by the RDA, that isn't going to be possible - therefore, any attack would basically be marines on foot.

Quote:
If the humans ever did return...
Hell's Gate can still detect them. People on Pandora even know almost exactly when they will arrive. It's not like that much would be needed anyway - Hell's Gate is the only safe place to land, and a single missile or turret will destroy the shuttle. Of course, this is even assuming that Hell's Gate is maintained as a possible landing area, where plants would easily overgrow most of it.

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Once on the ground, the steroelithography plant would be put back into operation and the defenses would be manned again. In the # of humans at Hell's Gate thread, we reached a general consensus that there were about 600 or 800 individuals at Hell's Gate.
Again - they can't use it because they do not control Hell's Gate, and I understood the consensus as being 400-600, although yes, around 150 were likely marines. Either way, the ISV doesn't carry weapons, as those were manufactured on Pandora.

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If all 200 individuals on the ISV were devoted to defense, then we have a full complement of soldiers. Basically it would be a struggle to hold out until the next ISV arrived.
Except that all the ISVs already on the way do NOT contain 200 marines, maybe 30 maximum.
200 marines on foot wouldn't last a day.

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As far as wildlife goes, the humans held out under more dire circumstances in the past. In the beginning, when the humans first established a base, there hardly any heavy weapons, no perimeter fence with sentry guns, and no air cover.
That was before the human actions threatened all life on Pandora. Any humans that arrive will certainly find all life on Pandora to be extremely hostile to them.

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The next ISVs cannot just turn around. They have to refuel at Hell's Gate so the humans would be forced to try desperate measures.
"We will send a shuttle up with fuel, and you will turn around and leave, or we will not send the shuttle up and wait until your power and therefore life support fail". Even if they tried to make some kind of attack with the shuttles on the ISV, they have maybe 30 marines, and a cargo of manufactured goods and avatar tanks .

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I am no fan of Selfridge either but either he will return or James Cameron will have to introduce a new face.
Yet that doesn't mean he is going to become Quaritch.

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If everything was known yes, but only the RDA's side of the story will be told. Many of the details would be obscure to the average bureaucrat on Earth.
I've already addressed that many times. Transmit a normal light-speed signal with all the data of what happened (especially since everything seems to have video cameras on it) to Earth, and it will arrive 2 years ahead of the returning ISV and be accessible to anyone on Earth capable of receiving it, including governments.

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Well it depends on a lot of things. I wonder if the ISV that left can make it all the way back to Earth.
IT refuelled while in orbit - and even if fuel was not 100%, as there is no friction in space, it could travel at a lower velocity - 0.5c would take less fuel to reach, and increase journey time - remember that no fuel is needed for the deceleration phase at Earth. On the assumption that the cryo units use minimal power, then a trip on less fuel may be possible, if very slow. Either way though, it is extremely unlikely that they did not refuel while in orbit, as they were for just over three months.

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If a full return trip is impossible the only option would be to link up with the next ISV en route and travel to Pandora together.
Decelerating by themselves would use up all their fuel and they would then be stuck in interplanetary space - not an ideal predicament. This is hard scifi, and is is difficult to impossible to change such a course after it has started. Again, 2 shuttles worth would be maybe 60 marines (actually, only 30 since there were none on the return ISV), and still no carried weapons.

Quote:
We may see a standoff situation where the humans are just holed up sitting in Hell's Gate without venturing outside. Not much conflict there and perhaps in the third movie, the next few ISVs start to arrive and thats when hostilities break out again.
Perhaps if they hadn't already left, but Hell's Gate has been all but abandoned - as I explained above, it can not be instantly taken, especially not by 30 unarmed marinesre
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  #53  
Old 03-02-2011, 08:25 PM
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Hell's Gate can still detect them. People on Pandora even know almost exactly when they will arrive. It's not like that much would be needed anyway - Hell's Gate is the only safe place to land, and a single missile or turret will destroy the shuttle. Of course, this is even assuming that Hell's Gate is maintained as a possible landing area, where plants would easily overgrow most of it.
You bring up a very good point about knowing the approximate arrival time. As far as actual detection goes, it depends on whether the systems in the control tower are still functioning. If the deleted scene in which the Avatars take over the control is cannon, it looks like everything was obliterated when Max drove the slashcutter through. The electronics inside would be exposed to the elements and would deteriorate rapidly after some rain poured down.

Hell's Gate would have air defenses but I don't think it includes surface to air missiles. It seemed as if they relied on a combination of attack helicopters and turrets on the sentry towers to keep wildlife at bay. The few individuals would have an idea of when the next ISV would arrive but that time could vary by a week or two. They cannot always keep a constant state of vigilance. They have to sleep and eat among other things. Someone would be keeping watch but even that would be inadequate. You would look up and see a shuttle on its descent. It would be mad scramble to get something heavy to knock it out within the next thirty seconds.

Within the span of the next ISV arriving in a few months, I doubt overgrowth would make its way onto the base. After a year or so, then yes.

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Again - they can't use it because they do not control Hell's Gate, and I understood the consensus as being 400-600, although yes, around 150 were likely marines. Either way, the ISV doesn't carry weapons, as those were manufactured on Pandora. it can not be instantly taken, especially not by 30 unarmed marines.


From the scene where Jake is leaving the shuttle, we can see marines carrying rifles as they exit the shuttle. The ISV hardly carries anything in the way of armaments but it seems as if each soldier carries a rifle as personal baggage.

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Except that all the ISVs already on the way do NOT contain 200 marines, maybe 30 maximum.
200 marines on foot wouldn't last a day.
Granted the military personnel are few but as in the case where Quaritch used the miners as a militia, everyone would be forced into a combat role given the dire circumstance.

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That was before the human actions threatened all life on Pandora. Any humans that arrive will certainly find all life on Pandora to be extremely hostile to them.
I was under the impression that wildlife was hostile and aggressive to them from the start. The only difference that happened as the years went on was increasing hostility from the Navi.

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"We will send a shuttle up with fuel, and you will turn around and leave, or we will not send the shuttle up and wait until your power and therefore life support fail".
The shuttle would have to be one the two shuttles from the arriving ISV as there aren't any on Hell's Gate. Without people in AMP suits, I do not see how loading enough fuel is possible within a reasonable time frame.

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Even if they tried to make some kind of attack with the shuttles on the ISV, they have maybe 30 marines, and a cargo of manufactured goods and avatar tanks .
See early point with picture. 30 Armed marines would be all they would need against the two dozen or so that stayed. These scientists aren't exactly trained for military combat. Most of them have never handled a single weapon (control tower attack aside) and that makes all the difference.

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I've already addressed that many times. Transmit a normal light-speed signal with all the data of what happened (especially since everything seems to have video cameras on it) to Earth, and it will arrive 2 years ahead of the returning ISV and be accessible to anyone on Earth capable of receiving it, including governments.
You're right. Their version would make it to Earth first. The only thing I wonder about is whether Hells Gate is capable of broadcasting a video back to Earth. Radio signals decrease in strength according the the inverse square law so it takes a lot to broadcast something thats detectable over vast distances. Even harder is transmitting something that can be deciphered as an audio or visual message. Your typical radio transmitter would only be barely detectable on Mars. To broadcast a legible message over the background noise, you would need an extremely huge structure.

There was some talk about FTL communications using quantum entanglement but that has a very slow upload rate. Only a simple message could be sent.

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On the assumption that the cryo units use minimal power, then a trip on less fuel may be possible, if very slow. Either way though, it is extremely unlikely that they did not refuel while in orbit, as they were for just over three months. Decelerating by themselves would use up all their fuel and they would then be stuck in interplanetary space - not an ideal predicament. This is hard scifi, and is is difficult to impossible to change such a course after it has started.
You may be right about them not being able to turn around. Either way we still have ISVs en route that cannot turn around. It'll be interesting to see how all of these questions are answered once the sequel comes out.

Last edited by Banefull; 03-02-2011 at 08:30 PM.
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  #54  
Old 03-03-2011, 11:19 PM
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Hell's Gate would have air defenses but I don't think it includes surface to air missiles. It seemed as if they relied on a combination of attack helicopters and turrets on the sentry towers to keep wildlife at bay.
It depends - depending on what we want to consider canon, there are anti-air turrets in the game, and the Samsons and scorpions seem to be able to carry air to air missiles. There would be a LOT of warning of any ISV, as it still has to decelerate. There is no such thing as stealth in space.

Fair enough on the marines arriving having rifles - but if, as you suggest, the miners would be part of an attack (unlikely, since the ISV probably does not contain a psychopath on a personal quest for bloodshed), then they wouldn't have anything (in addition to not having any training) - so really, that doesn't add anything.

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I was under the impression that wildlife was hostile and aggressive to them from the start. The only difference that happened as the years went on was increasing hostility from the Navi.
It was only neutrally aggressive before - a human walks up to a thanator, he gets eaten, the Na'vi probably laugh at them for being stupid. Now, they will likely be actively hunting down any marines that were found on Pandora.

Quote:
The shuttle would have to be one the two shuttles from the arriving ISV as there aren't any on Hell's Gate. Without people in AMP suits, I do not see how loading enough fuel is possible within a reasonable time frame.
The base's power comes from collected hydrogen using retired shuttles converted into automated collection vessels.

Quote:
See early point with picture. 30 Armed marines would be all they would need against the two dozen or so that stayed.
...and he Na'vi? As soon as the ISV is detected entering the system (with a lot of warning, no stealth in space, remember), the Na'vi would be ready to help. Anyway, the marines would not just be able to land at Hell's Gate, as I mentioned.

As for data, possibly - but this is >100 years into the future - and form a location KNOWN to be inhabited, so it is far more likely it would be interpreted. The quantum entanglement communications would be very slow (years to transmit) but could also be used, although the problem there is that the RDA would receive it rather than anyone on Earth.
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