So you chose to stay, Now what?

[Sothis]

Originally Posted by Ashen Key

I think we have VASTLY different definitions of 'hard sci-fi' - to me, Avatar is space-fantasy/space-opera with cyberpunk elements, and about as hard sci-fi as Star Trek. That said, not sure if invasion would work or not - if invasion, though, it'd have to be at least six years in the future.

@Ashen Key: Gonna have to disagree with you for once, Ash. :-p Avatar might not be the hardest of hard sci-fi, but it is much more "hard sci-fi" than Star Trek. Star Trek has "warp drives," and "transporters," and Rubber-Forehead Aliens. By contrast, Avatar hand-waves very little. A scientific explanation is offered for just about everything (whether you buy it is a separate issue). I'd agree that the aesthetic is more space-fantasy/space-opera than you usually see in hard sci-fi, especially when it comes to Pandora. But if I had to classify it as either "soft sci-fi" or "hard sci-fi," I'd go with hard. Though really it's a spectrum, not a binary.

Also, six years is much too soon, even as a minimum. First, it takes 6.75 years for an ISV to make the journey, so that's already a little over. Second, it takes information 4.37 years to travel between Earth and Pandora. So if you assumed that they launched the instant they heard the news in detail, that means they'd get there 4.37 + 6.75 = 11.12 years after the events of the movie. Finally, I'm pretty sure they'd want to debrief Parker and the other survivors in person before they make any important decisions. So I'd say 14 years is the soonest you could expect any kind of envoy to arrive.

@Woodsprite: Personally, I'm gonna agree with HNM that an invasion would not be very realistic. It would be cinematic, and it seems like the obvious response at first glance. But when you examine all the logistical, political, and economical considerations, you'll find lots of compelling reasons why they wouldn't try to take Pandora by force. That's not to say they'll give up, but like you said, there ARE other moons they could potentially develop. And even if they were determined to retake Pandora specifically, an armed invasion simply wouldn't work. Any successful strategy would have to be a lot more subtle.