Why we have to start living more like the Na'vi now

[auroraglacialis]

Originally Posted by Human No More

Energy could theoretically be produced far more cheaply if people stopped caring about environmental standards. Ergo, it's possible, especially since if energy was unaffordable to most, profits would be reinvested to raise capacity to generate more money. That is how business works, unless you are talking about a lack of any money at all, which would not happen in a failed economy

I still dont get what you are saying. This is sort of contrary to much of what I learned about economics, energy policies etc.
I agree that there is probably a certain part of energy costs that exist because of environmental standards, but honestly I think this is in most cases and certainly on a global scale a rather small part. And even if it is 20%, with the prices of for example oil rising from $20 a barrel to well over $100 within years - that margin of 20% is minute.


Energy scarcity or energy price explosions do lead to recessions. Recessions usually do not lead to real profits that are easily invested. Recessions however can lead to lowered energy prices because demand drops because people cannot afford energy anymore (because they lost jobs, money,...), companies went broke and so on. And yes recessions also lead to less money. Money depends on debt and trust, if people are not trusting each other, people cannot borrow money anymore and there is less money in circulation. This happened of course since 2008, the all time high of oil prices. Ever since then, governments are trying to create trust and credit by throwing budles of money at the banks, automibile companies, etc... They lower the prime rate in order to get more money into flow. This is what they did in 2008 and the rate has hit rock bottom since then, with no margin that allows for pushing that button anymore:

As money is no longer something that exists in some real way, but is basically completely built on trust in the economy, trust in growth, progress and future profits, it is highly volatile if these things are threatened. With increasing energy prices for example, future profits and growth are in danger of declining - causing upheaval on the marketplace.

I am not saying that there will be a collapse of everything soon or that "living like the NA'Vi" will solve this for now. What I think is an accurate analysis is that of a "catabolic collapse" scenario that has been proposed by several economists. The dynamics of this is that energy prices rise, the economy gets into trouble because fo that, production goes down, people cannot afford to consume, companies go bancrupt etc - then due to all that energy prices fall, the economy picks up again, energy prices rise again and the whole things happens over and over, however each time something new is sacrificed/worsened during the recessions - for example private house ownership (USA), health insurance (UK), pensions (USA, EU), government debt (EU), democracy (EU, Hungary), infrastructure (US), education (US, EU), safety, environmental standards etc... During the times of recovery, these degradations in society will persist to a large degree, as the first profits are needed to rebuild the economy, strengthen companies and empolyers and only reach employees or the public funds at a time when the next recession hits. That way with each step the overall wealth of people declines. If the economy does not trust the growth anymore out of fear of another recession, panic can break out and there can be a more rapid collapse. A side effect of such developments that already can be seen is an increasing totalitarian attitude of the rulers. Governments try to seize control of as much as they can - controlling people by CCTV, throwing human rights issues overboard etc - the same is true for the other rulers - the ones that have money. I think it pays to look at history. The past years I usually said back then reminded me of the 1920ies in many ways from all that I have read about them. What comes after the 1920ies is the "great depression" followed by fascism, war and a "wartime economy". The last time this worked - I am not so sure this time. Maybe there will be a "sustainability dictatorship" or something that forces companies to produce solar cells and wind turbines and electric cars instead of flatscreen TVs and gasoline driven cars. I dont know if that will happen - some people advocate for such an "green dictatorship" that forces the economy and society into a more sustainable behaviour - not out of some hippie ideas about saving the planet but out of sheer necessity for continued existence of states, industry, government, capitalism and civilization.

Now these things I said are not from Orlov or any other single source. I read some books, listened to talks and interviews with a couple of people who are scientists, economists and apt observers of the global situation. I find their analysis very thorough and much more convincing than to say "the free market economy is self regulating and it will fix everything if it is only allowed to do its work unhindered by the workers, people and governments" - which is in my opinion closer to faith than to conclusive logic and analysis. Why is the "invisible hand of the market" invisibnle? Because it is not there!