what if Cameron takes us all by surprise?

[Advent]

Cameron seems to be a sensible-enough director/perfectionist, so I imagine that the sequel will be pretty plausible. Nothing too wacky.

Unfortunately, that means Eywa probably can't 'beam 'em up' to Earth.

[Moco Loco]

I was thinking about this again. Sure, it's not a prequel, but it could happen a considerable amount of time in the future. I wouldn't be too happy about that, since our beloved main characters would be much older and some of the inevitable ISV drama would've been skipped, but it is, I suppose, possible.

[Human No More]

Well, there will still be an ISV every year for the next 6 if departures stopped at the same time the one that just left left, so 10 or 11 assuming word reaches Earth at light speed, or 12 if it only does on the returning ISV (last one leaving in 6 years' time and taking nearly 6 years to arrive), after which any more ISV trips will definitely stop.

[mikkowilson]

They can communicate FTL to earth to prevent further (in addition to the 6 already on the way, they can't stop and turn back) ISV launches to Pandora.

...or to inform them to send more ISVs anyway, heavily armed.

- Mikko

[Clarke]

I'm not sure whether the marketing execs will let him be that surprising. They're expecting more billions of dollars again.

Originally Posted by mikkowilson

...or to inform them to send more ISVs anyway, heavily armed.

- Mikko

Yeah, that would be the logical (for the RDA) option, and I can't imagine what the Na'vi would do about it.

[Human No More]

To put it bluntly...

Originally Posted by Human No More

There are 12 ISVs - we can assume that due to needing 6 months acceleration from Earth each, 6 months is the VERY minimum spacing between them. Each one has a very small actual cargo capacity, likely around the same as a very large transport aircraft (e.g. An-225). Each one can carry maybe 100-200 passengers in total, but the ones already on the way to Pandora do NOT carry mostly marines, maybe 10-20 marines to replaces ones who were leaving. Even if an ISV WAS fully loaded with weapons, that would maybe be 4-5 scorpions OR 20 or so AMPsuits, and maybe 100-200 marines, but if it was caring any assembled vehicles then there would be no equipment for the marines.
Any vehicle, especially the scorpions, would need to be unloaded, assembled, and prepared before being any use - since a scorpion will not fit in a shuttle, it would need to be assembled on the ground (from multiple flights), even before being fuelled and armed. Of course, such vehicles use a LOT of fuel, which I haven't even mentioned so far, and would also take a lot of space, as well as effort.
Each ISV carries 2 shuttles. The shuttles are very vulnerable, especially now since the scientists will control Hell's Gate and all the anti-air defences. It is safe to assume there is nowhere else safe to land, between the Na'vi and the wildlife and plants of Pandora. Even if they did, than as I explained above, it would basically be a group of marines on foot, with minimal equipment.
It's not going to work.

ISVs don't have weapons, this is not soft scifi. I would also say it's most likely that the best plan would be to transmit evidence to Earth, even at light speed it arrives well ahead of the ISV. After that, there certainly aren't going to be any more coming for quite a while, I might even say never within the context of the RDA based on the clear evidence of what happened.

[Niri Te]

Human no more,
I cut and pasted this from an earlier post of yours, so you could see what I am talking about.
Tee, (Ateyo Te syaksyuk) is writing a fanfiction story on LearnNavi, and we are getting to a point in the ongoing story, where there is a big discussion on the possibility of re-supply of a NEW mining Company, and the worries of a new militia showing up.
Can Tee lift what I have below verbatim, for one of the key characters in her story to use to address the clan leaders at the meeting? THIS is what would be said.


" There are 12 ISVs - we can assume that due to needing 6 months acceleration from Earth each, 6 months is the VERY minimum spacing between them. Each one has a very small actual cargo capacity. Each one can carry maybe 100-200 passengers in total, but the ones already on the way to Pandora do NOT carry mostly marines, maybe 10-20 marines to replaces ones who were leaving. Even if an ISV WAS fully loaded with weapons, that would maybe be 4-5 scorpions OR 20 or so AMPsuits, and maybe 100-200 marines, but if it was caring any assembled vehicles then there would be no equipment for the marines.
Any vehicle, especially the scorpions, would need to be unloaded, assembled, and prepared before being any use - since a scorpion will not fit in a shuttle, it would need to be assembled on the ground (from multiple flights), even before being fuelled and armed. Of course, such vehicles use a LOT of fuel, which I haven't even mentioned so far, and would also take a lot of space, as well as effort.
Each ISV carries 2 shuttles. The shuttles are very vulnerable, especially now since the scientists will control Hell's Gate and all the anti-air defences. It is safe to assume there is nowhere else safe to land, between the Na'vi and the wildlife and plants of Pandora. Even if they did, than as I explained above, it would basically be a group of marines on foot, with minimal equipment".

[Clarke]

Originally Posted by Human No More

To put it bluntly...


ISVs don't have weapons, this is not soft scifi. I would also say it's most likely that the best plan would be to transmit evidence to Earth, even at light speed it arrives well ahead of the ISV. After that, there certainly aren't going to be any more coming for quite a while, I might even say never within the context of the RDA based on the clear evidence of what happened.

(I have never seen any figures for what sort of capacities ISVs can hold, so I'd like to see a citation for that. )

Also, that only works if you assume there's only one human base on all of Pandora. IMO, that isn't a sound assumption, since it would be both vulnerable and somewhat inefficient.

[Human No More]

Hell's Gate isn't the very only one, but it's the only one that would be habitable long term without support - anywhere else is just going to be like the mobile link, or even the mine - basic facilities there, but not the infrastructure to support people for any real length of time.
ISV source == Pandorapedia. While not 100% canon, it stands unless disproven.

[auroraglacialis]

I think the only way they could get to that kind of army was because they managed to keep a base and to be on relatively friendly terms with the native population. Probably the NA'Vi at first greeted them with curiousity and open arms. Then more and more machines were delivered and built until they had a veritable army. Since that is gone now and the chances of establishing another base anywhere on Pandora and have enough time to let it grow large enough are basically zero, I dont think this will happen. It also probably does not pay off for the RDA (their stocks must be falling massively after the news hit Earth ).
What is more likely is, that they will try and establish a new base on a different moon or planet. JC hinted towards that the other moons will play a role and it makes sense. If humans want to get a hold in that planetary system again, they have to pick a different moon, set up a base there in an environment that is still benign (e.g. has no life on it or has life that is yet unaware of the impact skypeople will have or that is nonsentient). They could then start mining and processing and constructing machines there and build weaponry and eventually an army that can indeed go for Pandora again (assuming that even within this planetary system, Pandora is the only planet that has unobtainium - maybe the other moons have it as well but require more expensive equipment to mine it, which would mean that they can also just ignore Pandora). The only other option would be something like "nuke it from orbit" - dropping something devastating from orbit down to the most central places like the tree of souls. That would be really mean and it would not require a large load.
I hold it more likely that they set up base on another moon though. JCs hint to other moons strongly suggest that.

[Clarke]

Originally Posted by auroraglacialis

I think the only way they could get to that kind of army was because they managed to keep a base and to be on relatively friendly terms with the native population. Probably the NA'Vi at first greeted them with curiousity and open arms. Then more and more machines were delivered and built until they had a veritable army. Since that is gone now and the chances of establishing another base anywhere on Pandora and have enough time to let it grow large enough are basically zero, I dont think this will happen.

I'd like to point out the devastation that occurred as a result of "modern" conventional war, e.g. WWII, Vietnam, etc. If you set any of those armies against the modern US military, (comparable to the RDA, because of the tech downgrades) it'd be a curbstomp; the technological advances made since then, especially in computing, blow them out of the water. The fact that the RDA have a completely unopposable beachhead (i.e. low Pandoran orbit) makes the whole thing strategically even easier.

Considering the effect of Moore's Law, the apparent wealth of the RDA (unimaginably vast), and the technology already available/demonstrated, IMO, it's unbelievable for the Na'vi to win. If the RDA decided to colonize again in, say, 10 or 20 years time, there'd be very little the Na'vi could do about it.

(And yes, of course I'm sticking to conventional weaponry and low tech. )

[auroraglacialis]

So despite weapons from orbit, what would they want to do - build a couple of more spaceship to transport an army there? If they want to build an army in place, they would need a base, mining facilites, factories and all that takes a couple of years. With just a couple of shuttles and aircraft, they cannot win. Look at the army they lost in the movie now - if they come with only a handful of these, they cannot defend a base long enough to build another army. The moment they set foot on Pandora, they will get evicted. They would have to bring enough weaponry with them to win against basically all large animal life that could attack them on Pandora or at least against all NA'Vi warriors. And assemble all of that in space. No, I think setting up a base of operations on another moon is much more likely.
Earth is not doing so well in that time either, so I am not sure just how many resources they have left to build more spaceships to bring weapons to Pandora - and how long that would take. IIRC the spaceships they have now were a huge investment and construction took a long time...

[Niri Te]

You have both forgotten one thing. There are tsawtute who had proven their loyalty to the Na'vi, that were allowed to stay. The ships did NOT have the space to transport all of the evicted vrrtep and their weapons, which are NOW on Pandora. As an American warrior, I know that if I were there, I would teach the Na'vi how to use ALL the weapons that were left behind. Not to replace the bows and arrows, TRUST ME, a Bow in the Jungle at night is a FORMIDABLE WEAPON. There is no sound, or muzzle flash for your targets to identify WHERE the attack is coming from. When the field of battle dictated that stealth be used, the the "old ways" would be employed, but when much lead would be needed to be thrown into the sky, The Na,vi would know how to do that too.

[Human No More]

Originally Posted by Clarke

I'd like to point out the devastation that occurred as a result of "modern" conventional war, e.g. WWII, Vietnam, etc. If you set any of those armies against the modern US military, (comparable to the RDA, because of the tech downgrades) it'd be a curbstomp; the technological advances made since then, especially in computing, blow them out of the water. The fact that the RDA have a completely unopposable beachhead (i.e. low Pandoran orbit) makes the whole thing strategically even easier.

Considering the effect of Moore's Law, the apparent wealth of the RDA (unimaginably vast), and the technology already available/demonstrated, IMO, it's unbelievable for the Na'vi to win. If the RDA decided to colonize again in, say, 10 or 20 years time, there'd be very little the Na'vi could do about it.

(And yes, of course I'm sticking to conventional weaponry and low tech. )

You're still not sticking to canon. Going "hurr durr invade use spess mehrens" just marks you out as a troll.

Aurora is right, but I would add that even that is going to be impossible because they are limited by what an ISV can actually bring there.

[Clarke]

Originally Posted by auroraglacialis

So despite weapons from orbit, what would they want to do - build a couple of more spaceship to transport an army there?

I don't think you'd need an army there just to defend a new base. Depending on precisely what weapons you have available, you might need as few as 5-10, if you play them strategically. (Whether or not the RDA can play them sanely is an open question. )

Look at the army they lost in the movie now

Unfortunately, Cameron broke my suspension disbelief fairly severely there. For instance, there is a moment where an ikran pulls a Sampson out of the air and smashes it into something. As good cinema as this is, I can't see any way it could physically work; the ikran should be far too light for it to be able to pull on the Sampson that significantly.

The moment they set foot on Pandora, they will get evicted. They would have to bring enough weaponry with them to win against basically all large animal life that could attack them on Pandora or at least against all NA'Vi warriors

Set up your base in the middle of an empty plain, and defend it with large-calibre, long-range weaponry. This would be the solution if you were planning a new base, but obviously some compromises must be made if you didn't plan that from the beginning. Although a question in the case of the big machines such as shuttles and buildings is, "Evicted by what?" Eywa does not have a mass driver handy.

Earth is not doing so well in that time either, so I am not sure just how many resources they have left to build more spaceships to bring weapons to Pandora - and how long that would take. IIRC the spaceships they have now were a huge investment and construction took a long time...

The economics of mining unobtanium with antimatter-fuelled rockets do not work out sensibly in any model of economics I can think of. If cost is an issue, I can't really see why you would go at all.

Originally Posted by Niri Te

As an American warrior, I know that if I were there, I would teach the Na'vi how to use ALL the weapons that were left behind.

That is a rather interesting catch-22: how much should you practice when ammo is limited?

Not to replace the bows and arrows, TRUST ME, a Bow in the Jungle at night is a FORMIDABLE WEAPON. There is no sound, or muzzle flash for your targets to identify WHERE the attack is coming from.

That really depends on what technology the enemy can throw at you. A bow and arrow is worse than useless against a tank, for instance. (And if the RDA fixed the glaring design flaws in the AMP's windshield, it would easily qualify as a walking tank.) Not only that, but if your enemy is particularly advanced (possibly more so than the RDA) they can just watch the arrow in flight, and find where it came from that way. In that particular case, the computer is incredibly powerful, and the Na'vi have no response to it.

When the field of battle dictated that stealth be used, the the "old ways" would be employed, but when much lead would be needed to be thrown into the sky, The Na,vi would know how to do that too.

This is another thing that depends on precisely what technology the RDA has available. It is impossible to both hide from infra-red cameras, and be able to fire back, for instance.

Originally Posted by Human No More

You're still not sticking to canon.

I was not aware you could read my mind.