May 2011: The Discovery of Pandora/Earth 2.0

[Dreaming Of Pandora]

We've all been thinking "When will we actually discover a planet or moon like Pandora? In 50 years? 100?" Scientists are more optimistic about this. They say, if current exo-planetary research continues at its present pace, we should find a planet like Earth or Pandora in the next 7 MONTHS. Astonishing that our place in the Universe might change completely within the next year or so. This is the time to be living in, in terms of finding Earth 2.0.

May 2011: Science Researchers Predict Discovery of Earth 2.0

The first Earth-like planet orbiting another star will be announced in May next year, if the discovery of extrasolar planets continues at its present rate, say researchers Samuel Arbesman from Harvard Medical School in Boston and Gregory Laughlin at the University of California, Santa Cruz. They point out that astronomers have been discovering extrasolar planets at an increasing rate since 1995. The rate of scientific progress, they point out, is often hard to measure, but in certain circumstances, the data is unambiguous and easy to measure, creating a trend.

The discoveries of exo-palnets now follow a well understood pattern, the first extrasolar planets being necessarily massive, many times the size of Jupiter, and so easier to spot. As techniques have improved with the Kepler Space Telescope, for example, astronomers have found smaller planets, some just a few times more massive than Earth.

"It's only a matter of time before more Kepler observations lead to smaller planets with longer period orbits, coming closer and closer to the discovery of the first Earth-analog," says John Morse, head of the astrophysics division at NASA headquarters in Washington.

Astronomers to date have found superhot gas giants and snowball-like Neptunes, with the trend toward the discovery of a planet in the habitable zone. There's no real dispute among astronomers that the discovery of an Earth-like planet is on the cards.

Arbesman and Laughlin have taken this data and projected it forward to predict when an Earth-like planet is likely to crop up. The results have a heavy-tailed distribution in which there is a 66 per cent probability of finding the other Earth by 2013, a 75 percent probability by 2020 but a 95 percent probability by 2264.

However, they say the median date of discovery is in early May 2011, which for various reasons is the date they emphasis in their paper.

The first data from Kepler space telescope which was launched in March last year specifically to find extrasolar planets was released in June and is currently being analysed. The first set of candidate planets are due to be announced in February next year.

Many astronomers expect the first Kepler data matrix to include a habitable Earth-like planet. But according to Arbesman and Laughlin, they'll have to wait a little longer. "Because," they say, "of the limited time base line of the mission to date, the Kepler planet candidates to published in February 2011 may be too hot to support significant values for H [their habitability metric]."

But the race is heating up: several new techniques have made Earth-bound telescopes almost as sensitive as Kepler and certainly on the verge of finding Earth 2.0.

The idea of Earth 2.0 orbiting another star, reports the MIT Technology Review, could have a major impact on the global psyche and provide the focus for an international effort to characterize this place. And all this to happen in early May 2011, at least according to Arbesman and Laughlin.

Extract of Daily Galaxy Blog

[Hunter of the Glade]

7 months?? ...oh my gosh

I BETTER GET IN CRYO LOL

[Migg3006]

fresking awesome!!! thanks for this news¸.

[ISV Venture Star]

So... when do I get to go?

[Earthlover18]

I saw this a few days ago. The curious and scientific part of me is extremely anxious and excited about what could be discovered soon. But the humanitarian part of me is worried that something like what happened in Avatar could occur. I couldn't bear to see anything like that happen.

[Human No More]

Do want... Sign me up for going there!

Unfortunately, with the loss of any kind of actual space program, it will be far too long for us before we get there

[X.,.Pandora.,.X]

I'll live to see Earth 2 discovered

[Dreaming Of Pandora]

Originally Posted by X.,.Pandora.,.X

I'll live to see Earth 2 discovered

Yeah awesome isn't it. Serious history will be written if we do find the next Earth.

[Patrice Maire]

They don't say how far away these planets are, but think about it guys... some of you are young enough that the first extrasolar probe may well be launched within your lifetime but your grandkids will be able to see if there is a planet with Earthlike atmosphere on it.

Don't despair thinking another Pandora type scenario will happen. That is fiction. We don't have that kind of technology yet, besides... it may be decades before any real discovery will be made on the types of planets we'll find.
Then we have to get cracking on a better propulsion system.

So this is great news... for my great grandkids to be able to see.

[Advent]

So, we're closer than ever to finding an Earth-like planet.

....How do we get there?

[TheIknimaya]

Wow.

If we actually do find the next "Earth", next year, then...

OH MY GOD

I love astronomy, and if we do make this discovery during my lifetime, then...I will be forever changed. I am possibly considering a career in astronomy, but haven't decided. (My passions are history, technology, and astronomy.)

To be there when we make this discovery, will be the greatest thing one can witness. Even if it isn't next year, it could happen soon enough.

[Earthlover18]

I swear it is the most amazing thing ever to think about Earth like planets out there somewhere.

Look at this video from NASA about whether or not an alien civilization could ever find out that our planet is here. Turns out the Kuiper Belt would be the best bet for finding that there are planets orbiting our sun. But the only thing that would be able to be imaged using our currently technology would be the distortion in the belt caused by Neptune's massive gravity.

off topic side note (totally not meant to brag but just to tell my astronomy friends on here): I think I am going to be getting a tour of the Appalachian State Dark Sky Observatory soon. Im not in any astronomy classes right now but I asked the lead astronomy professor about it since I missed the open community night, and he asked me if I would be interested in going out to it one night with him! It is located about 20 miles away from campus away from the terrible light pollution.

32 inch aperture =

[Neytiri.]

Originally Posted by Dreaming Of Pandora

We've all been thinking "When will we actually discover a planet or moon like Pandora? In 50 years? 100?" Scientists are more optimistic about this. They say, if current exo-planetary research continues at its present pace, we should find a planet like Earth or Pandora in the next 7 MONTHS. Astonishing that our place in the Universe might change completely within the next year or so. This is the time to be living in, in terms of finding Earth 2.0.

That's amazing! I'll have to start prepping my ship, anyone else want in? I got a few seats open :p

Seriously though all we need now is Cryo, or to be able to travel faster then the speed of light so we can actually reach that planet without have to burn through like 50 generations.

[Layzie]

Wow. I can't wait to hear more details about this.

[X.,.Pandora.,.X]

if we find Earth 2, I'll have to change my sig z.z